Forecast – Ramadan Offensive 2019 Based on recently observed movements by the militants and other security-related long- and short-term developments within Somalia, several potential hotspots for activity and likely scenarios have been identified: Mogadishu – Key government institutions, such as Villa Somalia, the Parliament building and the Ministry of Defense as well as prominent civilian [...]

Nigeria Election Update Significant disruptions were reported during the last six weeks as a result of the ongoing Presidential campaign rallies. With the Presidential and gubernatorial elections due to occur on 16th February and 2nd March respectively further electoral violence is expected to dominate the country in the next six weeks. Since the beginning of [...]

Nigeria Election Following decades of military government democratic order was restored to Nigeria in 1999. The return of democracy heralded much hope for the new millennium. However, subsequent elections over the past two decades have witnessed widespread election violence, malpractice, corruption and poor governance. This has resulted in immense frustration particularly amongst the younger generations [...]

Complex Attack in Nairobi On 15th January 2019, a complex attack was conducted at the 14 Riverside Drive compound in Kileleshwa, Nairobi. At the time of writing, a large number of conflicting information regarding the assailants, modus operandi and current status of the attack continues to be reported, exacerbating an accurate assessment of the situation [...]

Paul Biya, the 84 year old incumbent running for his 7th term in office Cameroonian Presidential Election 2019 – Introduction On 7th October, Cameroon is due to hold a presidential election, despite attempts by the executive to postpone the process to 2019. The agency entrusted with this task of its coordination is Elections [...]

President Macky Sall – Incumbent, candidate and former Geological Engineer Senegal Presidential Election 2019 – Introduction The impending Senegalese presidential election has been scheduled to take place on Sunday 24th February 2019. This election will be the 11th presidential election since gaining independence from France in 1960. So far, the west African state [...]

Mali Presidential Elections Mali is shortly due to hold a President election, marking the state’s 6th democratic renewal since its transition away from authoritarian rule in 1991. Whilst Mali remains a high-risk location with significant security issues, recent elections have been relatively moderate in terms of politically motivated violence. In general, the pre-electoral and post-electoral [...]

Rise in Risk from Boda-Bodas Introduction In the past 24 months there has been an alarming steady rise in armed robberies around the Karen, Hardy and Langata areas of Nairobi targeting pedestrians and motorists. Armed robbers have been known to target both local and foreign nationals and typically conduct the robberies on boda-bodas (motorcycles). SF [...]

Capture of FOB Kolbiyow Kolbiyow, Lower Jubba region, Somalia Introduction At approximately 0500 hours EAT on 27th January 2017, an al Shabaab suicide bomber detonated his vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) against the main entrance of the Kenyan Defence Force (KDF) Forward Operating Base (FOB) located near Kolbiyow, approximately five kilometres east of the Kenyan [...]